Fundamentals of Business

In the early days of a new technology

In the early days of a new technology there is enormous potential for application. No one knows quite what to do with it and they may try things which turn out to be impossible. This phase is characterized by lots of experimenting around the technology and its applications. People take risks because the stakes are low no one knows quite what the future will hold, and the markets for the new applications don't exist they are just made up of people who are interested in the new thing.

But gradually these experiments begin to converge around what they call a 'dominant design' something which begins to set up the rules of the game. This can apply to products or processes; in both cases the key characteristics become stabilized and experimentation moves to getting the bugs out and refining the dominant design.

For example, in the chemical industry we have moved from making soda ash (an essential ingredient in making soap, glass and a host of other products) from the earliest days where it was produced by burning vegetable matter through to a sophisticated chemical reaction which was carried out on a batch process (the Leblanc process) to the current generation of continuous processes which use electrolytic techniques and which originated in Belgium where they were developed by the Solvay brothers. Moving to the Leblanc process or the Solvay process did not happen overnight; it took decades of work to refine and improve the process, and to fully understand the chemistry and engineering required to get consistent high quality and output.

In product terms the original design for a camera is something which goes back to the early 19th century and as a visit to any Science Museum will show involved all sorts of ingenious solutions. The dominant design gradually emerged with an architecture which we would recognise shutter and lens arrangement, focusing principles, back plate for film or plates, etc.

But this design was then modified still further for example, with different lenses, motorized drives, flash technology and, in the case of George Eastman's work, to creating a simple and relatively 'idiot-proof' model camera (the Box Brownie) which opened up photography to a mass market. Innovation doesn't stop at the dominant design but it moves from being big steps and radical experimentation to focusing more on improvement and refinement.

As the technology matures still further so this incremental innovation becomes more significant and emphasis shifts to factors like cost which means efforts within the industries which grow up around these product areas tend to focus increasingly on rationalization, on scale economies and on process innovation to drive out cost and improve productivity.